* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992014 08/12/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 39 50 62 71 76 78 82 79 79 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 39 50 62 71 76 78 82 79 79 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 38 45 52 59 63 65 65 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 13 14 15 11 11 11 6 5 5 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -5 -1 -1 -2 -5 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 55 53 45 37 40 45 38 53 76 52 25 40 281 SST (C) 30.3 30.0 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.5 29.1 28.4 27.5 26.9 26.9 26.1 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 170 167 164 163 164 161 157 150 140 134 134 126 117 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -51.8 -52.1 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 6 5 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 76 77 75 73 74 72 70 66 65 60 56 51 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 5 6 6 7 9 10 13 14 15 18 16 18 850 MB ENV VOR 18 8 8 23 25 35 44 49 60 48 38 20 25 200 MB DIV 34 22 25 34 39 12 45 12 19 28 0 -8 8 700-850 TADV -1 -2 0 -1 0 1 -2 -1 1 -2 -3 -2 0 LAND (KM) 403 406 444 480 528 697 755 905 1045 1215 1410 1567 1742 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.5 16.9 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.5 19.1 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 103.3 104.7 106.0 107.3 108.5 110.9 113.4 116.2 118.8 121.5 124.4 127.1 129.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 12 12 13 13 13 14 13 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 74 78 64 40 28 34 38 11 9 8 5 11 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 15. 24. 30. 32. 34. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 12. 13. 15. 19. 17. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 25. 37. 46. 51. 53. 57. 54. 54. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992014 INVEST 08/12/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992014 INVEST 08/12/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##