* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992014 08/12/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 41 53 65 75 80 83 83 82 81 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 41 53 65 75 80 83 83 82 81 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 39 47 53 58 60 61 60 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 11 14 12 8 11 7 2 2 3 7 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 -4 -3 -4 -2 -3 -1 -2 -3 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 65 58 44 42 44 34 30 66 51 5 330 257 283 SST (C) 29.8 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.3 28.7 28.0 26.9 26.6 26.2 25.4 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 165 162 163 163 162 159 152 145 134 131 127 118 114 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.2 -52.5 -51.8 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 -51.4 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 9 9 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 76 73 71 73 74 69 67 64 62 59 56 53 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 6 7 8 10 12 15 17 20 20 21 22 850 MB ENV VOR 6 8 18 25 30 33 43 47 45 41 30 34 41 200 MB DIV 24 13 23 33 25 29 36 14 27 36 -1 -1 1 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 -2 0 1 -2 0 0 -1 -3 0 -1 LAND (KM) 456 497 531 586 659 743 822 949 1082 1288 1458 1650 1835 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.6 17.1 17.7 18.3 18.9 19.4 19.7 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 105.4 106.6 107.8 109.0 110.1 112.4 114.9 117.4 120.1 123.1 126.0 128.6 130.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 12 11 11 12 12 13 14 14 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 66 59 33 24 25 37 24 9 9 6 11 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 406 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 28. 31. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 15. 17. 20. 21. 22. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 16. 28. 40. 50. 55. 58. 58. 57. 56. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992014 INVEST 08/12/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992014 INVEST 08/12/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##