* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992014 08/12/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 53 63 72 74 73 73 70 68 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 41 53 63 72 74 73 73 70 68 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 39 44 49 51 51 50 48 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 17 12 12 14 11 6 7 4 5 15 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -2 -2 -3 0 0 -2 -5 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 49 38 40 40 25 24 34 11 353 331 247 266 258 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.0 28.1 26.9 26.0 25.5 24.4 23.5 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 165 164 162 156 146 134 125 120 108 98 91 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 9 8 6 4 3 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 74 71 73 75 71 69 65 64 57 57 52 47 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 9 10 11 13 16 18 19 20 20 22 850 MB ENV VOR 5 16 26 32 31 31 31 37 14 22 18 29 26 200 MB DIV 14 10 28 16 12 17 8 17 2 -16 1 14 10 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 0 0 -3 -1 -2 -3 -2 0 3 3 LAND (KM) 447 474 531 599 643 673 800 906 1099 1245 1443 1610 1692 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.8 18.5 19.2 20.0 20.8 21.5 22.3 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 106.6 107.8 108.9 110.0 111.1 113.5 116.1 118.7 121.7 124.6 127.5 129.8 131.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 11 12 12 13 14 15 14 13 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 47 27 22 25 29 24 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 15. 22. 27. 29. 30. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 16. 19. 19. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 28. 38. 47. 49. 48. 48. 45. 43. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992014 INVEST 08/12/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992014 INVEST 08/12/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##