* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN EP112014 08/13/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 43 54 63 71 76 80 81 83 84 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 43 54 63 71 76 80 81 83 84 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 40 46 52 57 62 66 68 70 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 11 10 10 12 10 7 7 6 3 2 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -3 -3 1 -3 -4 -5 -2 -3 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 38 47 56 67 49 48 65 41 55 14 119 86 128 SST (C) 29.9 29.7 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.5 28.0 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.0 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 163 159 157 154 150 144 139 136 136 136 132 129 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 72 72 70 68 68 67 66 66 65 64 62 60 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 10 11 11 14 15 17 18 21 20 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR 27 34 41 46 50 61 77 79 89 86 86 93 96 200 MB DIV 25 25 31 18 21 22 18 24 32 23 24 21 15 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -2 -5 -3 0 -2 0 0 4 0 0 LAND (KM) 523 625 668 717 783 944 1088 1192 1306 1416 1543 1635 1710 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.1 17.0 16.9 16.9 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.5 17.6 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 109.2 110.5 111.7 112.9 114.1 116.4 118.5 120.3 122.0 123.5 125.1 126.5 127.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 11 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 22 27 32 34 31 13 12 18 10 8 9 5 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 14. 20. 24. 27. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 11. 14. 15. 18. 18. 18. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 24. 33. 41. 46. 50. 51. 53. 54. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 ELEVEN 08/13/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 ELEVEN 08/13/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##