* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902014 08/13/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 35 44 55 67 72 75 76 76 74 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 30 35 44 55 67 72 75 76 76 74 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 28 32 37 42 48 53 57 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 12 10 8 11 8 12 14 12 8 5 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 0 -2 -3 -5 -3 -3 0 4 SHEAR DIR 66 68 68 80 84 52 68 72 99 95 114 59 161 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 147 147 145 143 141 139 136 133 130 127 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.7 -53.2 -53.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.1 -52.5 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 71 71 71 71 70 68 67 64 61 58 55 51 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 13 13 15 15 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 23 20 16 11 13 16 30 44 73 86 93 78 84 200 MB DIV 95 84 67 68 79 31 73 56 71 59 74 37 42 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 4 LAND (KM) 2073 1968 1863 1778 1692 1554 1447 1334 1208 1056 876 682 537 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.2 11.5 11.9 12.2 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.9 13.4 14.3 15.4 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 137.7 138.6 139.5 140.2 140.9 142.2 143.3 144.5 145.8 147.2 148.6 150.0 150.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 8 7 6 5 6 7 8 8 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 15 16 17 16 16 16 19 22 15 9 10 7 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 21. 27. 30. 33. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 16. 17. 17. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 12. 15. 14. 14. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 24. 35. 47. 52. 55. 56. 56. 54. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902014 INVEST 08/13/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902014 INVEST 08/13/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##