* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN EP112014 08/13/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 49 55 64 71 76 79 76 76 74 72 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 49 55 64 71 76 79 76 76 74 72 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 44 48 52 59 63 66 67 67 65 64 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 10 11 12 11 8 4 3 5 1 6 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -5 -1 1 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 36 38 49 48 41 48 18 54 353 1 318 162 187 SST (C) 29.7 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.0 27.3 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.5 26.2 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 157 154 151 145 137 134 134 132 128 124 122 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -51.3 -51.7 -51.2 -51.6 -51.2 -51.6 -51.4 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 71 68 67 66 66 67 65 62 63 61 60 59 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 14 14 15 17 19 20 20 22 21 21 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 36 41 43 47 53 75 85 86 77 60 74 91 110 200 MB DIV 35 30 23 18 15 22 9 10 19 37 22 16 29 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -4 -4 -1 -1 0 0 4 -1 2 0 LAND (KM) 615 655 687 744 817 968 1108 1262 1402 1512 1634 1754 1863 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.8 18.2 18.3 18.3 18.3 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 110.4 111.6 112.8 114.0 115.2 117.4 119.7 121.9 123.9 125.6 127.2 128.7 130.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 26 29 28 26 19 9 14 5 4 4 1 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 22. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 11. 13. 14. 13. 13. 12. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 20. 29. 36. 41. 44. 41. 41. 39. 37. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 ELEVEN 08/13/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 ELEVEN 08/13/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##