* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902014 08/13/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 35 44 55 66 71 73 73 72 69 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 30 35 44 55 66 71 73 73 72 69 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 27 31 36 41 46 50 53 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 10 8 7 9 9 14 11 6 5 3 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -3 -1 -1 -2 -3 -2 0 1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 68 68 81 89 56 55 74 81 98 94 99 78 211 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.4 26.8 26.2 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 146 146 144 144 143 142 140 137 131 124 122 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -52.9 -53.2 -53.6 -53.2 -53.6 -52.7 -53.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 71 72 72 70 68 68 68 66 64 61 59 55 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 6 7 8 9 11 13 15 15 15 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 19 16 12 16 16 13 37 50 67 72 68 71 77 200 MB DIV 79 60 69 77 59 56 64 83 72 57 68 24 16 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1 2 2 0 LAND (KM) 2013 1917 1821 1755 1689 1599 1520 1417 1296 1136 951 793 676 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.7 12.1 12.4 12.6 12.7 12.6 12.8 13.3 14.3 15.6 16.9 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 138.1 138.9 139.6 140.2 140.7 141.6 142.5 143.5 144.5 145.6 146.8 147.8 148.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 7 6 5 4 4 5 6 8 8 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 15 15 15 15 16 18 16 7 9 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 27. 30. 33. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 24. 35. 46. 51. 53. 53. 52. 49. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902014 INVEST 08/13/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902014 INVEST 08/13/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##