* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP942014 08/13/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 29 33 41 53 59 65 66 68 68 68 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 29 33 41 53 59 65 66 68 68 68 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 28 32 36 40 44 46 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 11 12 14 11 11 16 14 14 12 9 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 -1 -4 -4 0 1 7 7 SHEAR DIR 53 75 76 66 63 82 74 91 79 94 84 86 102 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.3 26.9 26.6 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 146 144 143 142 141 139 137 136 132 128 126 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -53.7 -53.2 -53.5 -52.5 -53.0 -52.2 -52.6 -51.7 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 70 69 67 68 66 66 61 59 56 53 47 42 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 6 8 9 10 13 14 15 15 16 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 29 23 22 18 16 35 50 81 95 104 103 113 107 200 MB DIV 82 70 69 57 44 45 47 69 55 68 63 57 21 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 5 4 LAND (KM) 1811 1722 1634 1574 1515 1435 1351 1271 1158 1001 832 694 600 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 12.0 12.4 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.7 12.6 12.9 13.7 14.8 15.7 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 140.0 140.7 141.4 142.0 142.5 143.3 144.3 145.3 146.4 147.6 148.7 149.6 150.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 6 4 4 5 5 6 8 7 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 16 16 15 18 22 21 13 9 11 7 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 421 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 26. 30. 32. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 17. 17. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 13. 15. 14. 15. 15. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 9. 13. 21. 33. 39. 45. 46. 48. 48. 48. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP942014 INVEST 08/13/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP942014 INVEST 08/13/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##