* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/13/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 53 59 66 74 76 78 75 75 74 75 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 53 59 66 74 76 78 75 75 74 75 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 49 53 56 61 64 66 66 66 65 63 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 12 10 11 13 10 6 7 7 2 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 0 0 -1 0 -3 -2 0 -1 -2 -6 SHEAR DIR 49 56 55 53 49 74 57 87 79 147 82 145 199 SST (C) 29.4 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.3 27.5 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.5 26.2 26.0 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 160 157 153 150 148 139 135 135 133 128 125 122 120 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -51.5 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 69 67 65 64 63 63 65 64 63 59 56 59 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 14 16 18 19 22 21 22 21 21 22 23 850 MB ENV VOR 46 45 53 62 73 85 83 89 82 74 63 70 79 200 MB DIV 35 35 44 24 24 2 16 39 27 15 21 2 14 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -4 -3 -4 -1 -2 -1 0 2 -2 1 0 LAND (KM) 677 723 788 864 951 1081 1245 1398 1506 1641 1826 1953 2042 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.2 17.2 17.3 17.3 17.5 17.7 17.9 18.2 18.3 18.2 18.2 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 112.0 113.3 114.5 115.7 116.9 119.2 121.6 123.6 125.4 127.3 129.5 131.0 132.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 11 11 9 9 9 9 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 30 30 26 17 11 12 7 5 4 1 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 17. 18. 18. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 12. 12. 14. 12. 12. 13. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 19. 26. 34. 36. 38. 35. 35. 34. 35. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/13/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/13/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##