* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902014 08/13/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 30 37 47 53 59 59 59 57 56 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 30 37 47 53 59 59 59 57 56 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 21 22 25 28 31 34 37 38 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 11 13 16 10 11 14 10 8 4 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -2 -3 -2 -2 -1 -3 -3 -1 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 45 67 72 68 64 79 69 90 84 125 158 217 251 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.0 26.2 25.9 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 145 144 144 143 143 141 139 133 125 120 119 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -52.4 -52.8 -52.0 -52.2 -51.3 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 73 72 70 70 68 67 63 60 55 48 40 35 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 6 8 9 10 13 14 15 15 16 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 22 17 19 15 16 36 48 68 82 101 103 103 94 200 MB DIV 72 79 75 59 55 55 45 59 57 64 38 37 0 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 3 3 LAND (KM) 1991 1908 1824 1771 1717 1635 1544 1437 1275 1091 935 822 728 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 12.0 12.4 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.4 14.3 15.7 17.1 18.2 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 138.1 138.8 139.4 139.9 140.3 141.1 142.0 142.9 144.1 145.3 146.3 147.1 147.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 6 5 4 4 4 6 8 9 8 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 15 15 15 14 14 12 8 5 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 26. 30. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 15. 14. 12. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 13. 15. 14. 15. 15. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -14. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 17. 27. 33. 39. 39. 39. 37. 36. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902014 INVEST 08/13/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902014 INVEST 08/13/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##