* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/14/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 58 53 48 35 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 62 58 53 48 35 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 64 61 57 52 43 35 29 25 21 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 31 28 20 23 22 19 26 23 15 18 7 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 7 9 -1 3 1 0 0 0 -6 1 3 SHEAR DIR 357 359 16 358 353 355 333 331 337 337 321 303 220 SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.3 25.9 25.6 25.1 24.6 23.4 21.7 19.6 16.4 POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 126 125 124 120 116 111 107 95 78 62 63 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 37 41 40 41 41 40 39 37 36 38 48 47 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 20 19 17 16 13 11 9 8 6 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -9 -13 -24 -37 -77 -90 -107 -127 -139 -83 -13 3 200 MB DIV 20 -3 -5 -19 -21 -28 -12 -29 18 8 43 24 29 700-850 TADV 3 8 5 6 1 6 0 4 0 12 5 12 -35 LAND (KM) 955 1001 1047 1084 1122 1223 1299 1388 1469 1611 1806 1711 1393 LAT (DEG N) 30.8 31.2 31.6 31.9 32.2 33.0 33.7 34.5 35.3 36.6 38.4 40.4 43.4 LONG(DEG W) 159.2 158.9 158.5 158.1 157.7 156.9 156.9 156.8 157.2 157.3 157.7 157.4 156.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 4 3 4 6 8 9 13 16 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 22 21 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 762 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -9. -12. -15. -19. -23. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -9. -15. -20. -23. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -10. -13. -16. -17. -19. -23. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -12. -17. -30. -41. -54. -65. -77. -90. -97.-104. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/14/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/14/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##