* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/14/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 61 64 72 74 78 76 72 71 70 70 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 61 64 72 74 78 76 72 71 70 70 V (KT) LGE mod 45 50 54 57 60 63 65 66 65 63 60 57 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 11 10 11 11 6 5 9 5 7 2 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 2 0 -1 -1 0 0 -1 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 66 69 58 52 76 79 98 101 103 95 95 74 80 SST (C) 29.0 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.1 27.0 27.1 26.5 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 152 149 146 142 135 134 135 128 124 123 122 122 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -51.0 -51.5 -51.0 -51.5 -50.9 -51.4 -51.1 -51.5 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 67 66 65 64 66 68 64 66 60 60 61 65 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 18 21 20 22 21 23 22 22 22 23 24 850 MB ENV VOR 43 54 68 86 93 103 92 88 89 62 50 45 77 200 MB DIV 41 39 31 26 23 27 25 20 32 17 8 24 45 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -5 -1 -2 -2 -2 3 -1 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 721 791 874 961 1028 1166 1346 1500 1634 1771 1906 2066 2185 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.4 17.4 17.5 17.5 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.4 18.4 18.2 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 113.5 114.8 116.0 117.2 118.4 120.6 123.0 125.2 127.2 129.0 130.6 132.3 134.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 27 22 14 10 9 13 4 5 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 450 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 5. 9. 9. 12. 11. 11. 11. 12. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 19. 27. 29. 33. 31. 27. 26. 25. 25. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/14/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/14/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##