* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902014 08/14/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 32 42 52 59 63 63 63 62 64 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 32 42 52 59 63 63 63 62 64 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 24 27 30 33 36 38 38 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 13 15 13 10 11 11 9 9 5 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -3 -1 0 1 -2 1 1 4 2 0 SHEAR DIR 68 72 69 65 72 82 77 83 82 100 118 110 96 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.3 26.8 26.4 26.3 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 143 142 141 141 140 139 136 130 125 123 124 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.6 -53.6 -53.1 -53.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.2 -52.3 -51.5 -51.9 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 72 71 70 68 68 67 65 62 57 52 46 45 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 8 9 9 12 14 15 15 15 15 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 19 19 16 17 22 45 58 65 70 87 78 82 99 200 MB DIV 76 74 55 52 56 54 63 85 48 37 51 42 49 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1941 1882 1823 1787 1750 1692 1619 1522 1393 1280 1190 1136 1060 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.4 14.0 15.1 16.2 17.1 17.2 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 138.3 138.8 139.2 139.5 139.8 140.4 141.0 141.7 142.5 143.2 143.8 144.3 145.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 6 7 6 4 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 13 15 16 16 15 14 13 10 6 6 2 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 15. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 14. 14. 14. 15. 15. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 22. 32. 39. 43. 43. 43. 42. 44. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902014 INVEST 08/14/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902014 INVEST 08/14/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##