* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/14/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 52 44 38 31 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 52 44 38 31 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 55 49 44 39 31 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 33 30 21 22 19 16 20 20 16 11 15 14 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 2 6 -1 0 4 0 1 -3 0 -1 -4 3 SHEAR DIR 11 26 19 7 6 352 327 338 334 319 295 249 247 SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.0 25.6 25.1 24.2 22.7 20.4 17.7 14.5 POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 125 125 125 121 117 112 103 89 66 63 64 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.9 -53.4 -54.3 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 3 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 39 39 40 40 39 41 38 37 37 44 47 50 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 15 14 13 11 9 8 6 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -13 -23 -42 -59 -88 -105 -127 -120 -107 -44 -12 -7 200 MB DIV -12 -9 -17 -22 -21 -24 -32 10 10 24 35 20 30 700-850 TADV 5 3 5 3 0 2 0 -1 0 13 13 -7 0 LAND (KM) 966 996 1026 1055 1084 1199 1285 1384 1504 1696 1789 1524 1180 LAT (DEG N) 30.9 31.2 31.4 31.7 31.9 32.9 33.7 34.6 35.7 37.4 39.7 42.2 45.8 LONG(DEG W) 159.1 158.8 158.4 158.3 158.1 157.7 157.9 157.9 158.1 157.7 157.3 156.3 153.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 3 3 4 5 5 5 7 10 12 16 20 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 18 22 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 755 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -16. -20. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -7. -11. -15. -18. -19. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -13. -15. -18. -20. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -16. -22. -29. -40. -50. -61. -70. -79. -88. -93.-100. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/14/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/14/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##