* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/14/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 55 57 63 65 67 67 64 63 60 57 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 55 57 63 65 67 67 64 63 60 57 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 49 51 52 54 54 54 53 52 51 51 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 12 15 16 13 9 8 6 5 3 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 1 -1 2 0 0 0 0 1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 74 64 57 76 84 79 102 79 73 75 18 13 327 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.4 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.4 26.2 26.2 26.1 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 147 143 138 135 134 132 127 125 125 123 123 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -51.2 -51.4 -51.0 -51.4 -51.4 -51.9 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 68 67 68 68 66 66 62 59 59 63 70 71 74 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 18 20 21 21 23 22 23 23 22 22 21 21 850 MB ENV VOR 69 83 99 107 106 107 101 88 66 39 85 80 83 200 MB DIV 38 43 45 28 24 36 36 45 27 10 36 40 60 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -1 -2 -3 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 777 852 936 1001 1072 1237 1385 1512 1674 1851 2037 2180 2162 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.5 17.5 17.6 17.6 17.7 18.1 18.4 18.4 18.2 17.7 17.5 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 114.6 115.8 116.9 118.1 119.2 121.5 123.6 125.7 127.8 129.8 131.6 133.1 134.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 23 15 10 9 12 8 4 4 2 4 8 12 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 9. 10. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 12. 18. 20. 22. 22. 19. 18. 15. 12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/14/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/14/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##