* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902014 08/14/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 29 37 46 54 57 58 60 61 66 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 29 37 46 54 57 58 60 61 66 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 23 26 29 32 35 37 38 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 17 14 11 9 8 7 10 6 4 2 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -1 -2 -2 0 0 0 3 5 6 10 SHEAR DIR 68 67 66 79 78 70 95 99 105 97 85 95 6 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.4 27.1 26.9 27.2 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 143 143 143 143 142 140 136 132 128 133 136 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.7 -53.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -52.6 -52.9 -52.0 -52.4 -51.9 -52.4 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 72 70 69 71 71 66 62 58 54 50 50 51 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 9 11 14 14 14 15 16 20 850 MB ENV VOR 18 13 12 16 38 41 66 69 75 82 99 101 97 200 MB DIV 84 57 45 44 51 40 66 73 63 65 63 55 70 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 5 LAND (KM) 1897 1848 1799 1773 1746 1688 1610 1497 1392 1319 1287 1297 1323 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.5 12.7 12.8 12.8 12.8 13.2 13.9 14.9 15.7 16.0 15.5 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 138.7 139.1 139.5 139.8 140.0 140.6 141.2 142.0 142.6 143.0 143.2 143.3 143.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 2 2 3 5 5 5 3 1 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 14 15 15 15 15 15 14 10 6 7 8 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 26. 29. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 11. 12. 14. 15. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 9. 17. 26. 34. 37. 38. 40. 41. 46. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902014 INVEST 08/14/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902014 INVEST 08/14/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##