* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/14/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 48 42 36 30 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 48 42 36 30 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 49 43 38 34 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 31 20 19 18 19 16 23 18 12 19 24 29 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 0 1 4 5 0 0 3 -1 1 6 9 SHEAR DIR 31 22 6 355 347 330 324 331 324 297 283 255 245 SST (C) 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.2 26.1 25.6 25.1 24.2 23.1 21.4 19.3 16.6 14.0 POT. INT. (KT) 126 125 125 122 122 117 112 103 92 75 62 63 64 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -53.2 -53.6 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 39 40 41 40 39 41 38 36 41 48 48 51 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 14 13 12 11 9 8 6 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -23 -38 -59 -79 -97 -113 -135 -112 -52 -13 -6 -8 200 MB DIV -14 -24 -30 -31 -23 -18 -11 15 -7 26 24 19 10 700-850 TADV 5 6 2 0 4 1 0 1 8 19 30 -28 -47 LAND (KM) 1024 1061 1099 1138 1178 1280 1376 1510 1640 1843 1682 1420 1099 LAT (DEG N) 31.4 31.7 32.0 32.4 32.7 33.6 34.5 35.7 36.9 38.7 40.7 43.2 46.6 LONG(DEG W) 158.6 158.2 157.8 157.7 157.6 157.4 157.6 157.5 157.7 157.3 156.9 155.9 153.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 8 10 12 15 19 HEAT CONTENT 18 22 20 18 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 784 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. -1. -4. -8. -14. -18. -23. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 3. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -9. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. -15. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -19. -25. -36. -48. -60. -71. -82. -94.-104.-115. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/14/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -24.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/14/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##