* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/14/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 62 64 67 68 70 69 68 63 63 61 59 V (KT) LAND 55 58 62 64 67 68 70 69 68 63 63 61 59 V (KT) LGE mod 55 59 61 63 64 63 61 59 57 55 54 54 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 16 17 17 16 9 9 7 5 4 4 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 -1 2 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 57 50 65 86 78 90 83 89 71 89 24 357 339 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.3 27.0 27.1 26.7 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.1 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 148 146 142 137 134 135 131 126 124 124 122 121 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -51.1 -51.6 -50.8 -51.6 -51.2 -52.1 -51.8 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 69 69 71 69 69 67 64 58 58 61 68 72 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 20 22 20 22 22 23 22 23 21 21 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 84 102 109 113 105 97 98 77 70 63 72 87 80 200 MB DIV 43 49 43 29 37 17 19 21 11 37 27 40 55 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -2 -3 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 847 924 1002 1053 1115 1286 1453 1595 1745 1892 2027 2122 2205 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.3 18.1 17.6 17.6 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 115.4 116.5 117.5 118.7 119.8 122.2 124.4 126.6 128.6 130.2 131.4 132.5 133.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 7 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 19 11 10 9 15 6 3 2 2 4 8 11 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 5. 6. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 9. 12. 13. 15. 14. 13. 8. 8. 6. 4. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/14/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/14/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##