* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902014 08/14/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 48 56 62 65 64 65 64 64 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 48 56 62 65 64 65 64 64 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 32 36 41 47 51 54 54 52 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 15 12 11 11 7 6 8 6 5 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 -3 -3 -2 -2 1 1 6 8 11 5 SHEAR DIR 56 55 67 74 69 72 110 98 117 108 126 117 206 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.2 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 144 143 143 142 140 138 134 128 124 125 125 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.1 -52.5 -52.1 -52.6 -52.2 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 68 68 69 68 66 60 57 54 52 48 43 41 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 9 10 11 13 13 14 14 15 15 17 850 MB ENV VOR 10 6 6 22 28 46 62 75 86 88 93 89 106 200 MB DIV 69 56 51 49 59 53 60 58 69 68 60 51 37 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 4 4 6 4 LAND (KM) 1738 1684 1631 1588 1544 1458 1351 1234 1106 984 937 907 864 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.2 13.6 14.2 15.0 15.9 16.3 16.3 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 140.3 140.8 141.2 141.6 142.0 142.8 143.7 144.6 145.5 146.3 146.6 146.9 147.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 4 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 12 12 12 13 12 9 7 6 4 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 13. 19. 23. 26. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 11. 11. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 23. 31. 37. 40. 39. 40. 39. 39. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902014 INVEST 08/14/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902014 INVEST 08/14/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##