* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP942014 08/14/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 35 44 48 52 52 52 52 52 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 35 44 48 52 52 52 52 52 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 23 26 29 32 34 35 35 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 19 15 15 15 12 9 9 7 7 7 4 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 3 2 6 4 6 4 SHEAR DIR 52 58 63 55 51 72 82 91 91 96 101 95 289 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.1 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 145 145 146 144 142 138 133 127 125 126 125 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -52.6 -52.9 -52.1 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.2 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 72 72 73 72 69 68 63 58 55 52 48 50 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 11 13 12 13 12 13 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -7 4 13 19 42 48 58 67 74 76 101 99 200 MB DIV 41 35 39 47 48 42 52 38 53 65 37 40 22 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 1 3 8 LAND (KM) 1801 1760 1719 1680 1642 1554 1421 1261 1129 1045 1021 991 942 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.8 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.5 13.2 14.4 15.5 16.3 16.4 16.4 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 140.1 140.5 140.8 141.2 141.5 142.2 143.2 144.2 145.0 145.5 145.7 146.0 146.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 4 4 4 4 5 7 7 6 3 1 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 16 15 15 15 15 15 14 8 6 3 3 3 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):279/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 26. 29. 31. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 7. 6. 7. 6. 7. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 24. 28. 32. 32. 32. 32. 32. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP942014 INVEST 08/14/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP942014 INVEST 08/14/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##