* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/14/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 44 39 34 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 44 39 34 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 45 40 35 31 25 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 20 20 16 14 17 21 17 5 15 15 28 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 0 1 5 4 0 0 -2 3 0 1 7 3 SHEAR DIR 19 1 1 353 346 318 329 348 336 311 280 244 228 SST (C) 26.5 26.4 26.2 26.1 25.9 25.4 24.8 23.6 22.5 20.7 18.5 16.2 14.1 POT. INT. (KT) 126 125 123 121 120 115 109 97 86 68 61 62 62 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -53.1 -53.7 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 3 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 40 40 39 40 41 39 37 36 40 45 46 44 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 13 12 12 10 8 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -47 -63 -78 -89 -105 -132 -132 -142 -71 -25 -17 -46 200 MB DIV -33 -25 -19 -24 -24 -22 11 -37 14 20 2 14 0 700-850 TADV 4 0 0 3 3 0 0 0 10 11 11 -10 -38 LAND (KM) 1041 1089 1137 1177 1216 1327 1435 1590 1723 1827 1607 1384 1133 LAT (DEG N) 31.5 31.9 32.3 32.7 33.0 34.0 35.0 36.4 37.6 39.4 41.5 43.5 46.0 LONG(DEG W) 158.0 157.7 157.4 157.4 157.3 157.2 157.3 157.2 157.2 156.8 155.8 156.1 155.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 10 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 22 21 18 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 779 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -10. -13. -16. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -4. -8. -12. -16. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -18. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -16. -21. -31. -43. -56. -68. -81. -90. -99.-111. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/14/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -25.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/14/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##