* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/14/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 71 74 78 80 78 75 72 65 61 59 56 55 V (KT) LAND 65 71 74 78 80 78 75 72 65 61 59 56 55 V (KT) LGE mod 65 70 74 76 76 73 70 66 64 61 61 62 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 18 19 17 16 11 8 7 4 1 2 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 -1 -2 -4 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 57 68 87 81 88 103 93 103 86 96 278 127 320 SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.0 26.6 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.1 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 144 142 138 136 136 134 129 126 124 124 122 121 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -52.3 -52.1 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 69 70 71 71 70 66 59 57 54 60 61 66 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 22 21 23 24 23 22 22 20 20 20 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR 96 100 105 106 104 98 84 92 80 64 64 94 84 200 MB DIV 46 43 34 41 25 12 14 40 18 24 18 15 8 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -2 -3 -4 -2 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 966 1035 1100 1168 1243 1413 1559 1711 1856 1988 2111 2206 2159 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.2 17.2 17.4 17.5 17.8 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.8 17.5 17.5 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 116.9 118.0 119.1 120.3 121.4 123.7 125.8 127.8 129.6 131.1 132.3 133.4 134.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 6 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 11 18 12 5 4 1 6 8 12 12 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):269/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 9. 13. 15. 13. 10. 7. 0. -4. -6. -9. -10. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/14/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/14/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##