* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP942014 08/15/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 34 38 42 43 42 41 40 40 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 34 38 42 43 42 41 40 40 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 23 25 27 27 27 26 25 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 11 11 10 8 8 7 8 5 7 4 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 1 1 5 2 5 0 3 SHEAR DIR 69 69 58 51 70 121 129 140 154 168 189 203 207 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.4 26.9 26.3 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 142 141 141 139 137 131 124 120 121 121 121 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 68 67 67 63 62 58 54 50 46 42 43 43 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 10 9 11 11 12 12 11 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 21 31 40 48 54 58 68 60 71 89 122 108 200 MB DIV 36 39 44 49 46 47 43 34 23 29 50 31 41 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1717 1688 1659 1615 1571 1473 1348 1233 1149 1105 1064 994 922 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.2 13.4 14.0 15.0 16.1 17.1 17.6 17.6 17.5 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 140.3 140.6 140.8 141.2 141.5 142.2 143.0 143.7 144.2 144.5 144.9 145.6 146.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 3 3 4 4 5 7 6 4 2 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 10 10 9 7 5 5 7 8 8 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 18. 22. 23. 22. 21. 20. 20. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP942014 INVEST 08/15/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP942014 INVEST 08/15/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##