* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/15/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 36 31 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 40 36 31 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 40 36 32 28 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 19 21 19 17 16 21 18 8 8 11 5 8 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 4 5 4 0 0 0 -2 -6 -7 0 0 SHEAR DIR 356 356 351 343 333 329 330 358 328 350 347 292 232 SST (C) 26.4 26.2 26.1 25.9 25.7 25.3 24.7 24.0 23.5 22.4 21.3 20.0 18.1 POT. INT. (KT) 125 123 122 119 117 114 107 100 95 84 73 60 61 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.9 -53.3 -54.0 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 1 2 3 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 39 38 37 39 38 36 34 37 39 44 46 48 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 13 13 12 10 8 7 4 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -45 -63 -78 -85 -96 -113 -145 -153 -140 -104 -72 -50 -37 200 MB DIV -24 -17 -27 -25 -7 -6 -5 9 10 8 38 17 59 700-850 TADV 1 0 5 4 2 0 -1 1 -5 3 -5 5 -5 LAND (KM) 1089 1137 1184 1224 1264 1350 1445 1542 1596 1728 1853 1749 1555 LAT (DEG N) 31.9 32.3 32.7 33.1 33.4 34.2 35.1 36.0 36.5 37.7 38.8 40.0 41.8 LONG(DEG W) 157.7 157.5 157.2 157.1 157.0 157.1 157.4 157.6 157.7 157.8 157.4 158.3 157.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 4 4 3 5 5 4 4 6 6 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 20 18 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 786 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -3. -7. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -7. -11. -14. -15. -17. -18. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -14. -18. -29. -41. -53. -62. -73. -81. -86. -89. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/15/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/15/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##