* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/15/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 70 71 70 67 65 60 58 56 53 52 49 V (KT) LAND 65 68 70 71 70 67 65 60 58 56 53 52 49 V (KT) LGE mod 65 68 70 70 69 65 62 58 56 54 54 54 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 20 17 13 19 12 11 7 9 6 3 6 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 -2 -3 4 SHEAR DIR 78 78 74 88 107 116 106 96 79 40 16 322 225 SST (C) 28.1 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.2 26.9 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 141 138 136 135 136 133 128 127 125 123 122 120 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.3 -51.9 -51.4 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -52.4 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 72 73 73 70 68 68 62 59 58 61 64 68 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 22 24 22 22 21 22 20 20 20 19 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR 91 97 93 84 77 82 80 71 77 62 80 72 61 200 MB DIV 46 41 46 16 14 8 34 9 49 26 7 24 12 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -4 -3 -1 -3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1037 1088 1147 1216 1293 1468 1611 1758 1911 2051 2184 2238 2194 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.2 17.3 17.5 17.7 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.7 17.5 17.3 17.3 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 117.8 118.9 119.9 121.1 122.2 124.5 126.5 128.4 130.1 131.6 133.0 133.7 134.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 5 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 16 14 6 4 4 6 10 9 4 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 478 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 5. 2. 0. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -16. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/15/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/15/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##