* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP942014 08/15/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 42 45 48 48 48 48 47 49 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 42 45 48 48 48 48 47 49 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 32 36 39 40 40 39 38 37 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 9 6 6 8 11 5 6 5 6 5 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -3 -1 0 1 1 3 1 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 70 65 52 74 110 143 152 170 165 161 190 241 220 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.5 26.0 25.9 25.9 25.8 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 140 139 139 136 132 126 120 119 119 119 119 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.0 -52.3 -51.6 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 66 64 60 60 59 54 51 47 42 39 41 40 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 10 10 11 13 12 13 12 12 13 13 15 850 MB ENV VOR 32 41 46 54 63 62 73 63 73 67 91 91 109 200 MB DIV 28 33 38 62 66 37 34 34 49 22 25 33 50 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 1 1 1 6 7 LAND (KM) 1638 1609 1580 1538 1497 1386 1281 1206 1154 1108 1034 928 818 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.9 14.1 14.8 15.9 16.9 17.7 17.9 18.0 18.1 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 140.8 141.1 141.3 141.6 141.9 142.7 143.3 143.7 144.0 144.4 145.1 146.1 147.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 3 3 4 5 6 6 5 3 3 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 9 7 6 4 5 9 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 739 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 17. 20. 23. 24. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 8. 8. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 20. 23. 23. 23. 23. 22. 25. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP942014 INVEST 08/15/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP942014 INVEST 08/15/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##