* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/15/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 35 31 27 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 35 31 27 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 35 31 28 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SUBT N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 19 18 17 18 21 19 9 7 6 16 6 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 4 3 1 1 -2 2 -3 -5 2 -4 N/A SHEAR DIR 354 352 346 344 335 337 348 4 359 299 275 219 N/A SST (C) 26.2 26.2 26.1 26.0 25.8 25.4 24.8 23.8 22.2 20.7 18.6 18.4 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 122 121 120 118 115 109 99 83 68 60 59 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -53.4 -53.6 -54.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 2 2 3 4 4 4 3 1 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 37 39 37 36 34 34 36 42 47 50 50 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 11 10 9 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -62 -77 -83 -97 -103 -127 -141 -155 -111 -70 -31 -56 N/A 200 MB DIV -20 -26 -31 -8 -19 8 -4 -8 15 11 22 14 N/A 700-850 TADV 0 3 3 1 0 -2 0 0 3 3 0 2 N/A LAND (KM) 1128 1152 1175 1209 1243 1327 1433 1562 1754 1825 1602 1595 N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.2 32.4 32.6 32.9 33.2 34.0 35.0 36.2 37.9 39.3 41.4 41.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 157.3 157.2 157.1 157.1 157.0 157.2 157.5 157.8 157.4 158.5 157.2 155.9 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 3 3 5 6 8 8 9 7 5 N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 17 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 794 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -3. -6. -9. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -15. -14. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -7. -11. -14. -15. -17. -18. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -12. -17. -25. -37. -51. -60. -67. -75. -80. -82. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/15/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/15/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##