* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/15/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 55 52 50 48 47 45 45 44 46 44 43 V (KT) LAND 60 57 55 52 50 48 47 45 45 44 46 44 43 V (KT) LGE mod 60 57 55 53 50 47 45 43 42 41 40 39 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 19 14 15 16 8 8 9 9 9 2 12 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 1 -1 1 0 0 1 -1 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 89 86 95 109 112 106 81 84 39 33 8 30 352 SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.0 27.0 26.6 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 137 135 134 134 130 126 125 124 124 124 124 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.9 -51.4 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 73 73 71 69 67 63 59 55 60 64 68 71 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 22 22 21 21 20 21 20 20 20 22 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 94 92 92 83 85 72 80 68 65 62 80 63 53 200 MB DIV 37 34 9 6 8 18 49 14 33 -3 30 39 49 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1076 1125 1182 1249 1323 1469 1641 1816 1995 2137 2238 2107 1968 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.3 18.2 18.0 17.7 17.5 17.3 17.0 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 118.6 119.6 120.6 121.7 122.8 125.0 127.2 129.2 131.1 132.6 133.7 135.0 136.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 8 6 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 10 14 16 8 5 2 1 4 9 12 4 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -15. -16. -14. -16. -17. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/15/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/15/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##