* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/15/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 50 46 43 41 41 42 41 42 45 49 49 47 V (KT) LAND 55 50 46 43 41 41 42 41 42 45 49 49 47 V (KT) LGE mod 55 52 49 47 45 43 42 41 40 39 39 40 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 14 16 13 9 9 12 10 6 9 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 -1 1 -1 0 -1 -1 -3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 88 99 110 104 124 101 94 71 55 62 18 36 3 SST (C) 27.5 27.2 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.8 26.4 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 139 136 134 134 134 132 127 125 124 123 123 123 122 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.1 -51.7 -51.3 -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 72 72 68 70 69 63 60 60 66 69 71 71 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 23 23 23 22 23 22 22 22 22 23 22 21 850 MB ENV VOR 96 97 83 84 81 84 67 73 64 90 87 83 71 200 MB DIV 31 7 -5 13 27 39 15 12 0 2 27 17 27 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 -2 -1 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 LAND (KM) 1132 1189 1253 1331 1409 1542 1704 1882 2057 2206 2143 2024 1882 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.3 18.2 18.0 17.8 17.5 17.3 17.0 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 119.7 120.8 121.8 122.9 124.0 126.0 128.0 130.0 131.9 133.4 134.6 135.8 137.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 9 10 10 8 6 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 7 6 5 1 5 5 8 12 3 6 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -8. -6. -3. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -12. -14. -14. -13. -14. -13. -10. -6. -6. -8. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/15/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/15/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##