* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952014 08/15/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 21 21 23 25 28 32 34 36 39 42 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 21 21 23 25 28 32 34 36 39 42 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 23 25 27 30 33 37 41 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 17 17 14 15 16 7 12 12 12 11 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 2 2 3 3 1 7 2 2 3 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 96 115 124 130 128 143 138 149 118 136 110 141 117 SST (C) 27.5 26.7 25.9 25.5 25.4 25.9 26.2 26.0 25.6 25.6 26.1 26.6 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 130 121 113 109 109 114 117 116 113 113 118 123 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 117 108 104 103 109 113 114 112 113 118 124 133 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 8 700-500 MB RH 74 72 72 70 70 68 64 61 57 56 49 46 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -11 6 29 46 70 75 91 103 76 47 30 7 200 MB DIV 22 20 25 19 9 -5 11 29 28 11 -4 -37 -36 700-850 TADV -9 -10 -3 0 -1 7 4 3 9 5 10 10 16 LAND (KM) 174 281 397 510 623 881 1150 1471 1857 1887 1618 1396 1237 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.1 15.3 15.5 15.6 15.9 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 19.0 20.1 21.2 22.3 23.3 25.7 28.2 31.2 34.8 38.9 43.1 47.1 51.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 10 11 12 13 16 19 20 20 20 20 HEAT CONTENT 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 5 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 15. 21. 25. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -19. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 14. 16. 19. 22. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952014 INVEST 08/15/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952014 INVEST 08/15/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)