* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/15/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 44 43 42 41 41 42 42 44 45 47 48 V (KT) LAND 50 47 44 43 42 41 41 42 42 44 45 47 48 V (KT) LGE mod 50 47 45 43 42 40 39 38 38 38 38 39 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 14 12 9 6 7 13 9 8 10 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -1 0 -2 0 -1 -3 -4 -3 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 91 104 101 121 126 128 86 71 74 41 17 360 44 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 26.6 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.2 26.0 26.0 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 135 135 135 129 126 126 125 124 121 118 119 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 71 70 71 69 65 61 58 61 62 68 69 71 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 18 19 18 17 16 17 16 17 17 17 18 850 MB ENV VOR 84 78 82 79 72 75 62 67 52 77 79 77 61 200 MB DIV 4 -4 5 32 30 33 11 13 -21 -6 18 39 45 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 -1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1189 1264 1345 1425 1486 1626 1792 1961 2109 2238 2100 2058 2070 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.7 17.8 18.0 18.1 18.3 18.1 17.7 17.4 17.3 17.4 17.4 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 120.7 121.8 122.9 124.0 125.0 127.1 129.0 130.7 132.2 133.7 135.0 135.4 135.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 4 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 16 8 6 6 3 6 3 10 3 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -6. -5. -3. -2. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/15/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/15/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##