* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952014 08/16/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 34 35 35 36 40 42 42 43 43 46 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 34 35 35 36 40 42 42 43 43 46 V (KT) LGE mod 30 34 36 38 39 41 43 46 51 56 61 65 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 19 17 13 11 9 7 10 6 8 2 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 4 3 5 6 4 2 7 4 6 2 SHEAR DIR 118 128 132 139 140 135 158 98 135 142 156 285 188 SST (C) 26.8 26.1 25.4 25.2 25.3 25.8 26.0 25.7 25.5 25.9 26.5 27.1 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 122 115 109 107 108 113 116 114 113 117 123 129 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 110 104 102 104 108 113 113 112 117 124 131 140 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -53.1 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 3 3 3 2 3 3 4 4 6 7 10 700-500 MB RH 69 69 69 69 67 65 62 55 55 49 47 40 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 0 24 43 55 75 89 100 90 64 42 14 -9 200 MB DIV 12 16 18 6 8 14 44 34 18 8 -38 -23 -10 700-850 TADV -8 -3 -1 0 0 9 5 6 8 12 9 21 21 LAND (KM) 225 344 463 593 723 992 1292 1678 2074 1752 1511 1350 1033 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.3 16.5 16.5 16.9 17.3 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 19.6 20.7 21.8 23.0 24.2 26.7 29.5 33.1 37.1 41.5 45.8 50.3 54.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 12 12 13 15 18 20 21 21 22 21 HEAT CONTENT 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 9 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -13. -16. -18. -19. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. 16. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952014 INVEST 08/16/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952014 INVEST 08/16/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED