* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/16/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 41 39 38 40 40 39 41 43 43 45 48 V (KT) LAND 45 42 41 39 38 40 40 39 41 43 43 45 48 V (KT) LGE mod 45 42 39 38 37 35 34 33 33 34 35 35 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 14 12 9 7 13 14 5 5 6 10 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 -5 0 -2 -1 -4 2 SHEAR DIR 95 94 106 112 118 91 81 100 78 28 30 1 73 SST (C) 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.1 26.9 26.5 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 134 135 133 128 125 124 125 126 124 121 122 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -51.6 -51.9 -51.4 -52.0 -51.7 -52.2 -52.1 -52.7 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 71 72 70 65 64 61 58 60 64 71 73 73 74 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 19 19 18 19 19 18 19 18 18 19 20 850 MB ENV VOR 76 80 77 66 64 57 61 68 67 78 67 62 60 200 MB DIV 0 11 26 19 26 34 27 3 8 -8 40 50 40 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 1 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1237 1313 1394 1464 1535 1696 1864 1976 2080 2195 2153 2112 2149 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.2 18.2 18.1 17.9 17.6 17.2 17.0 16.8 16.8 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 121.5 122.6 123.7 124.8 125.8 127.8 129.7 130.8 131.7 132.9 134.6 135.0 134.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 10 9 10 7 5 5 7 5 0 2 HEAT CONTENT 9 5 5 3 2 1 5 9 8 7 8 10 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -6. -7. -5. -5. -6. -4. -2. -2. 0. 3. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/16/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/16/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##