* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952014 08/16/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 30 30 31 34 36 37 38 41 42 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 30 30 31 34 36 37 38 41 42 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 32 33 33 34 36 39 43 47 53 58 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 26 24 22 22 16 9 10 7 1 4 3 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 -1 -1 3 5 1 4 7 3 3 -3 SHEAR DIR 121 131 136 139 136 116 128 110 149 139 198 124 201 SST (C) 26.4 25.6 25.0 25.1 25.4 25.8 25.9 25.5 25.6 26.2 26.7 27.3 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 117 111 106 107 109 114 115 112 114 119 125 131 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 106 101 102 105 110 113 111 113 119 124 130 137 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 3 2 3 3 3 4 4 6 7 9 10 700-500 MB RH 68 68 66 66 66 62 58 55 52 46 43 38 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 25 43 56 68 79 84 89 73 57 35 -13 -39 200 MB DIV 20 18 12 2 -10 21 11 16 28 9 -11 -2 0 700-850 TADV -2 1 1 3 5 0 6 7 7 9 14 24 21 LAND (KM) 249 375 501 635 769 1068 1399 1809 2019 1782 1606 1399 1114 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.4 15.6 15.7 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.7 17.1 17.8 18.4 19.1 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 19.8 21.0 22.1 23.4 24.6 27.4 30.5 34.3 38.4 42.7 46.9 51.2 55.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 12 12 13 14 16 19 20 20 21 20 19 HEAT CONTENT 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 10 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -17. -18. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 11. 12. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952014 INVEST 08/16/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952014 INVEST 08/16/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)