* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP942014 08/16/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 32 33 35 38 40 43 46 50 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 32 33 35 38 40 43 46 50 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 25 25 24 24 24 25 26 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 8 6 6 2 2 1 1 4 6 4 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 1 0 2 0 -2 -3 -4 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 92 102 107 126 140 160 142 143 161 87 122 79 91 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.2 26.8 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 139 136 134 129 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 66 64 62 59 57 52 52 52 55 51 51 48 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 12 10 10 10 10 11 12 14 850 MB ENV VOR 38 36 36 45 53 42 44 45 68 69 73 70 81 200 MB DIV 59 50 56 48 47 36 38 32 30 8 9 25 22 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 -2 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1741 1702 1664 1620 1577 1504 1462 1392 1296 1159 996 815 633 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.5 13.9 14.5 15.0 15.9 16.6 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 139.9 140.1 140.3 140.5 140.7 141.1 141.3 141.9 142.8 144.1 145.7 147.5 149.4 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 5 6 5 4 3 4 5 7 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 6 4 2 8 11 7 7 7 5 2 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 22. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 13. 15. 18. 21. 25. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP942014 INVEST 08/16/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP942014 INVEST 08/16/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##