* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/16/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 33 30 28 28 28 30 34 37 40 41 43 V (KT) LAND 40 36 33 30 28 28 28 30 34 37 40 41 43 V (KT) LGE mod 40 37 34 32 31 29 29 29 30 31 33 35 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 15 14 9 6 10 7 4 4 3 6 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 0 -2 -4 -4 -6 -4 -1 -1 4 SHEAR DIR 94 102 111 122 126 102 107 120 68 36 333 19 301 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 134 134 132 128 127 126 124 122 122 122 122 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.7 -52.4 -52.9 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 72 71 66 64 61 58 58 57 65 66 71 70 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 16 15 14 14 14 13 14 14 15 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 78 73 65 60 62 51 69 66 88 70 76 60 83 200 MB DIV 17 31 16 16 24 -2 21 14 -3 -2 43 29 65 700-850 TADV -2 0 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1289 1363 1429 1502 1580 1743 1910 2056 2189 2254 2233 2202 2160 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.2 18.2 18.0 17.6 17.3 17.1 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 122.4 123.4 124.3 125.4 126.4 128.3 130.0 131.5 132.9 133.6 133.8 134.1 134.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 7 5 2 1 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 4 2 1 6 10 0 6 4 4 4 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -10. -6. -3. 0. 1. 3. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/16/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/16/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##