* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952014 08/16/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 21 21 22 23 27 31 34 37 41 43 V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 21 21 22 23 27 31 34 37 41 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 22 22 21 22 23 25 28 32 37 42 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 26 24 20 20 18 12 14 4 6 2 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 0 -2 0 1 0 4 0 4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 128 126 126 116 115 123 116 127 88 136 227 206 258 SST (C) 26.2 25.6 25.2 25.3 25.7 26.2 25.9 25.5 25.7 26.2 26.8 27.6 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 115 111 107 109 112 118 116 113 115 119 126 135 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 105 103 105 109 115 114 112 114 120 127 137 144 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 6 7 10 10 700-500 MB RH 67 66 66 66 63 64 59 58 52 50 46 42 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 39 50 58 69 89 85 87 64 55 38 19 -3 200 MB DIV 7 8 3 3 15 26 5 34 11 -23 -8 -10 14 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 -2 8 4 9 9 3 9 19 20 21 LAND (KM) 271 395 519 668 818 1139 1504 1922 1875 1642 1470 1221 907 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.5 17.1 17.7 18.3 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 20.0 21.2 22.3 23.7 25.1 28.1 31.5 35.4 39.7 43.9 48.3 52.7 57.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 11 12 13 14 15 18 20 20 21 21 21 21 HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 9 24 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -17. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 2. 6. 9. 12. 16. 18. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952014 INVEST 08/16/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952014 INVEST 08/16/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED