* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP942014 08/16/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 31 31 30 32 32 33 34 36 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 31 31 30 32 32 33 34 36 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 26 25 24 23 22 22 22 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 6 5 6 5 4 2 4 2 4 4 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 5 4 3 0 -2 -6 -4 -4 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 89 96 83 89 112 148 209 194 235 205 286 29 28 SST (C) 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.4 26.2 26.2 26.1 25.8 25.7 25.8 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 137 134 131 125 123 123 123 120 119 121 122 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 64 60 59 57 54 50 51 49 49 45 41 38 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 13 13 12 12 12 11 10 10 9 10 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 31 32 43 49 40 37 32 41 59 63 66 50 38 200 MB DIV 45 56 61 55 47 22 11 11 -8 1 13 11 -10 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 3 2 LAND (KM) 1711 1661 1612 1567 1524 1459 1405 1304 1175 1009 844 661 471 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.9 14.4 15.0 15.6 16.7 17.2 17.5 17.7 18.2 18.7 19.2 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 140.1 140.4 140.6 140.8 141.0 141.3 141.7 142.6 143.8 145.3 146.8 148.5 150.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 6 6 4 4 5 7 8 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 4 2 15 10 5 8 7 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 11. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP942014 INVEST 08/16/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP942014 INVEST 08/16/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##