* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/16/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 36 35 34 34 37 41 46 46 50 54 57 V (KT) LAND 40 38 36 35 34 34 37 41 46 46 50 54 57 V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 37 36 35 33 33 34 36 38 40 42 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 14 10 8 6 5 4 4 1 2 7 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -1 -4 -3 -6 -5 -5 0 0 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 100 110 128 133 138 118 105 76 25 331 52 89 121 SST (C) 26.9 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.4 26.4 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 132 131 128 126 125 127 127 125 123 123 125 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 69 65 62 59 58 55 58 60 67 70 72 71 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 15 15 15 15 14 15 16 18 17 18 19 20 850 MB ENV VOR 75 65 61 64 55 61 62 82 82 66 70 81 102 200 MB DIV 30 18 17 11 4 15 6 5 9 49 25 37 22 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1373 1433 1497 1580 1665 1832 1992 2134 2237 2277 2248 2227 2191 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.4 18.4 18.3 18.2 18.0 17.5 16.9 16.5 16.4 16.8 16.8 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 123.6 124.6 125.5 126.5 127.5 129.4 130.9 132.1 133.0 133.5 133.7 133.9 134.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 10 8 7 6 3 2 1 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 1 6 6 1 10 3 16 5 6 5 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):287/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 465 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -3. 1. 6. 6. 10. 14. 17. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/16/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/16/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##