* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912014 08/16/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 29 35 37 38 39 37 36 36 36 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 29 35 37 38 39 37 36 36 36 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 24 25 26 25 25 23 23 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 6 3 3 4 6 2 7 13 11 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -2 0 0 -4 -2 -3 -4 -6 -5 -6 -4 SHEAR DIR 56 29 68 55 40 66 54 87 221 225 243 217 215 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.2 27.1 26.1 25.7 25.0 24.1 24.1 24.4 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 152 149 146 136 126 122 114 104 104 107 114 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 6 5 4 2 2 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 80 77 76 74 75 72 70 68 66 61 58 55 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 11 11 10 10 11 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 11 15 17 19 42 54 83 77 76 101 136 153 200 MB DIV 45 43 30 46 45 27 34 13 11 -8 6 9 15 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -3 -3 -1 -6 0 -3 7 -2 6 0 LAND (KM) 728 718 718 749 790 855 1011 1168 1355 1556 1767 1982 2106 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.0 18.3 19.2 19.9 20.6 21.1 21.4 21.2 20.6 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 112.8 113.5 114.1 115.0 115.8 118.0 120.6 123.4 126.2 128.7 130.9 132.9 134.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 10 12 13 13 13 11 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 44 39 43 40 27 11 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 24. 26. 27. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 9. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 17. 18. 19. 18. 16. 16. 16. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912014 INVEST 08/16/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912014 INVEST 08/16/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##