* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/16/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 38 39 41 42 47 50 54 58 56 57 V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 38 39 41 42 47 50 54 58 56 57 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 39 39 39 38 38 39 41 42 45 46 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 11 11 8 10 7 12 7 6 11 6 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 -4 -3 -4 -3 -5 0 -1 -2 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 111 120 121 119 123 108 102 89 65 40 55 135 28 SST (C) 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.9 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 131 130 129 128 127 128 130 129 126 124 126 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -52.4 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 65 63 60 59 57 58 57 63 69 74 70 67 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 17 18 19 20 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR 69 64 66 57 58 82 82 96 67 68 64 91 111 200 MB DIV 31 23 27 23 13 28 12 2 -12 41 29 26 15 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -3 0 1 LAND (KM) 1459 1522 1588 1676 1765 1939 2060 2178 2287 2282 2244 2221 2217 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.1 18.1 17.9 17.7 17.3 17.0 16.5 15.9 15.8 16.5 16.6 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 124.5 125.5 126.4 127.4 128.3 130.1 131.3 132.3 133.1 133.6 133.8 134.0 134.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 7 6 5 4 2 2 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 9 9 9 3 8 15 16 17 13 13 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 6. 9. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 7. 10. 14. 18. 17. 17. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/16/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/16/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##