* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912014 08/16/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 25 28 32 38 43 45 46 45 44 42 39 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 28 32 38 43 45 46 45 44 42 39 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 27 29 30 30 29 29 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 1 3 3 3 1 3 4 8 12 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -1 -3 -2 -1 -1 -2 -5 -4 -3 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 72 77 80 279 306 199 141 2 13 257 280 268 287 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.0 26.8 25.9 25.4 25.1 24.9 24.5 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 157 154 152 145 132 122 116 111 108 105 99 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 8 8 7 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 82 80 77 77 76 76 73 67 63 58 56 53 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 10 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 15 19 19 18 26 34 47 48 34 69 93 132 133 200 MB DIV 74 59 59 44 38 65 25 48 -1 3 15 11 8 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 -3 -8 -6 -1 0 2 7 LAND (KM) 829 808 791 783 785 842 883 981 1047 1085 1103 1044 962 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.1 16.4 16.9 17.3 18.3 19.4 20.4 21.2 21.7 21.9 22.4 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 112.1 112.6 113.1 113.9 114.6 116.5 118.6 120.6 122.4 123.4 123.8 123.5 123.2 STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 7 8 9 11 11 10 7 4 2 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 49 47 43 45 43 22 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 21. 25. 28. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 11. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 12. 18. 23. 25. 26. 25. 24. 22. 19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912014 INVEST 08/16/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 59% is 4.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 36% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 20% is 4.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912014 INVEST 08/16/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##