* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP942014 08/17/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 29 31 32 36 38 41 41 42 43 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 29 31 32 36 38 41 41 42 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 8 9 9 6 7 9 14 12 16 13 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 5 4 4 2 4 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 103 85 83 99 96 89 84 77 90 72 68 78 74 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 131 130 131 132 134 135 134 132 131 133 135 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 57 58 55 53 56 58 59 58 55 54 58 59 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 12 11 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 46 49 41 37 39 36 41 43 45 26 2 1 1 200 MB DIV 61 63 67 49 37 31 35 -7 3 4 -2 -14 -7 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1599 1572 1546 1515 1484 1389 1287 1192 1106 1027 976 917 863 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 140.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 11 10 19 19 4 6 7 10 12 12 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 11. 13. 16. 16. 17. 18. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP942014 INVEST 08/17/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP942014 INVEST 08/17/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##