* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/17/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 34 34 40 41 46 46 47 47 50 48 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 34 34 40 41 46 46 47 47 50 48 V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 32 32 31 31 32 32 32 32 33 33 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 8 9 11 13 15 13 13 16 13 11 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -1 -2 -4 -2 -2 0 -2 3 2 4 SHEAR DIR 123 110 101 98 88 91 99 113 102 79 88 93 105 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 130 129 128 129 129 127 129 130 131 131 130 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -52.1 -51.7 -52.4 -51.7 -52.4 -51.8 -52.5 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 64 61 59 57 57 60 65 69 76 77 73 70 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 16 16 17 20 19 22 21 22 21 23 21 850 MB ENV VOR 59 64 55 52 66 75 68 53 31 25 22 45 77 200 MB DIV 33 27 28 26 36 39 13 10 15 38 50 44 52 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 LAND (KM) 1553 1638 1726 1803 1882 2030 2142 2198 2211 2225 2264 2264 2234 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 17.7 17.6 17.5 17.3 16.6 16.3 16.1 15.8 15.6 15.3 15.3 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 125.6 126.7 127.7 128.6 129.4 130.6 131.7 132.2 132.1 132.1 132.3 132.3 132.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 7 6 4 1 2 1 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 3 1 1 17 1 14 17 1 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 4. 9. 7. 8. 7. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -1. 5. 6. 11. 11. 12. 12. 15. 13. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/17/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/17/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##