* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912014 08/17/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 32 40 49 54 58 59 57 55 52 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 32 40 49 54 58 59 57 55 52 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 27 29 30 31 32 33 34 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 1 1 3 6 8 11 9 7 7 8 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -1 -4 -2 -3 -3 -6 -6 -1 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 65 98 175 200 128 50 26 36 66 98 145 164 178 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.5 27.9 27.1 26.8 26.7 26.9 27.0 26.7 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 153 151 149 142 133 128 127 130 132 130 116 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -51.6 -52.2 -51.4 -52.2 -51.3 -51.9 -51.6 -51.9 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 79 76 77 76 76 75 73 71 68 69 67 59 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 13 14 14 16 17 19 20 18 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 21 24 19 32 41 50 76 77 75 66 86 90 56 200 MB DIV 56 63 52 42 55 69 100 66 47 40 48 38 4 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 1 0 -4 -5 -7 -3 -1 0 1 4 LAND (KM) 808 819 837 864 898 961 1000 1028 990 945 824 670 537 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.9 17.1 17.7 18.3 18.6 19.0 18.9 19.5 20.8 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 113.0 113.7 114.4 115.2 116.0 117.6 119.0 119.7 119.6 118.9 117.9 117.2 117.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 8 8 8 6 2 2 4 6 9 12 HEAT CONTENT 31 35 36 27 13 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 21. 26. 29. 31. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 6. 7. 9. 10. 9. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 30. 34. 38. 39. 37. 35. 32. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912014 INVEST 08/17/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 57% is 4.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 18% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912014 INVEST 08/17/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##