* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/17/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 34 36 38 44 44 46 43 44 43 46 V (KT) LAND 35 34 34 34 36 38 44 44 46 43 44 43 46 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 34 33 32 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 8 9 11 10 11 14 14 17 19 18 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 -2 -5 -3 -4 -5 -1 0 4 2 6 SHEAR DIR 100 105 104 98 102 107 104 117 119 73 84 65 70 SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.7 26.9 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 130 130 129 129 129 128 126 127 128 128 128 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -52.4 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 62 59 56 57 59 59 68 69 68 63 62 54 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 15 15 16 16 19 18 20 18 19 18 20 850 MB ENV VOR 63 60 56 66 71 61 52 21 24 17 63 90 126 200 MB DIV 31 37 33 44 40 22 22 -3 30 23 44 46 54 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 2 2 1 0 0 1 3 8 5 3 LAND (KM) 1604 1691 1780 1858 1937 2110 2205 2222 2184 2194 2289 2280 2202 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 17.7 17.4 17.3 17.1 16.4 16.0 16.0 16.3 16.4 16.0 16.0 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 126.4 127.3 128.2 129.1 129.9 131.4 132.2 132.4 132.2 132.4 133.2 133.1 132.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 6 3 1 1 3 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 1 1 1 1 15 16 1 8 14 15 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 5. 7. 4. 6. 4. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 9. 9. 11. 8. 9. 8. 11. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/17/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/17/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##