* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912014 08/17/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 31 35 47 55 63 65 66 67 64 57 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 31 35 47 55 63 65 66 67 64 57 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 26 28 30 31 32 34 35 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 8 5 7 8 12 11 11 12 10 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -2 -2 -4 -2 -4 -5 -3 -1 1 -5 SHEAR DIR 26 48 33 19 19 24 46 59 69 74 94 130 160 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.5 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.2 26.8 25.3 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 150 147 145 137 132 130 132 135 132 117 104 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -51.1 -51.3 -50.8 -50.8 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 7 5 3 700-500 MB RH 75 76 76 76 75 72 71 71 70 72 66 59 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 14 15 16 19 20 23 24 25 25 24 20 850 MB ENV VOR 32 32 49 60 63 83 99 89 87 106 124 105 64 200 MB DIV 67 45 43 60 56 84 89 68 44 74 67 1 4 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 -1 -7 -3 -8 -3 -1 -2 -3 7 2 LAND (KM) 855 875 902 936 975 1030 1075 1074 999 872 685 601 499 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.7 18.0 18.2 18.4 19.0 20.6 22.8 25.2 LONG(DEG W) 114.2 115.0 115.7 116.5 117.2 118.7 119.7 119.9 119.1 118.0 117.2 117.8 119.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 7 6 3 2 5 7 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 40 37 21 10 7 6 8 7 4 3 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 29. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 12. 17. 17. 18. 19. 17. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 15. 27. 35. 43. 45. 46. 47. 44. 37. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912014 INVEST 08/17/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912014 INVEST 08/17/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##