* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP942014 08/17/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 23 24 26 31 35 42 45 46 44 45 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 23 24 26 31 35 42 45 46 44 45 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 24 24 25 27 30 32 34 35 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 9 7 5 7 4 8 15 21 22 27 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 2 2 2 2 2 0 -1 0 0 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 103 100 91 100 74 102 67 86 53 66 59 80 89 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 135 136 137 138 139 137 137 137 137 137 138 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 59 59 60 61 61 62 66 65 66 64 62 55 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 8 9 10 9 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 35 31 31 32 24 29 23 31 44 54 46 34 75 200 MB DIV 48 44 39 41 45 37 33 53 62 40 18 60 40 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 1485 1451 1416 1398 1381 1358 1335 1329 1320 1317 1336 1336 1332 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 141.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 4 3 3 3 1 0 1 1 0 1 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 4 4 5 7 12 15 15 16 19 19 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 6. 10. 17. 20. 21. 19. 20. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP942014 INVEST 08/17/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP942014 INVEST 08/17/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##