* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/17/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 41 42 47 48 49 48 47 44 43 41 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 41 42 47 48 49 48 47 44 43 41 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 43 43 43 43 42 42 41 40 38 36 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 12 13 10 7 7 10 14 19 20 18 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -4 -3 -3 -3 -2 0 4 0 3 2 SHEAR DIR 94 89 87 100 110 95 110 119 79 82 86 87 71 SST (C) 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 128 128 128 128 127 127 126 126 124 123 125 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -52.4 -51.4 -52.0 -51.5 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 57 55 56 57 58 62 64 66 65 60 57 52 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 15 16 16 19 18 19 18 19 17 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 50 43 48 55 48 38 17 14 13 27 64 96 93 200 MB DIV 32 28 27 37 34 20 -8 16 55 37 26 24 34 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 9 8 0 3 LAND (KM) 1695 1778 1861 1952 2043 2177 2234 2268 2280 2259 2238 2238 2248 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 17.8 17.6 17.3 17.0 16.4 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 127.7 128.6 129.4 130.3 131.1 132.2 132.8 133.2 133.5 133.7 133.9 133.9 133.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 7 4 2 2 1 1 0 0 1 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 2 10 1 8 8 6 7 7 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 476 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 4. 5. 5. 6. 3. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 4. 3. 1. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/17/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/17/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##