* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912014 08/17/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 42 54 64 66 68 65 64 59 54 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 42 54 64 66 68 65 64 59 54 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 34 38 40 41 42 43 43 41 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 13 13 14 15 16 8 9 14 9 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 -2 -1 -2 -3 -6 -5 -6 -2 -10 -5 SHEAR DIR 78 90 78 75 78 70 71 76 87 107 99 172 224 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.5 27.0 26.5 26.3 25.8 25.2 23.4 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 148 146 144 137 132 126 124 120 115 98 81 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -51.5 -51.4 -51.2 -51.4 -50.9 -50.9 -50.5 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 1 0 700-500 MB RH 77 78 79 77 76 74 74 68 66 56 51 51 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 15 17 18 22 25 24 26 26 26 24 21 850 MB ENV VOR 34 50 60 68 84 99 103 104 133 165 171 127 92 200 MB DIV 34 60 76 62 69 94 76 36 61 64 17 9 1 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -4 -1 0 0 6 4 6 LAND (KM) 959 995 1036 1074 1100 1112 1105 1086 1054 1015 934 828 788 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 6 11 16 18 HEAT CONTENT 39 21 13 10 9 10 8 1 9 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 25. 25. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 15. 15. 17. 17. 17. 14. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 29. 39. 41. 43. 40. 39. 34. 29. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912014 INVEST 08/17/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912014 INVEST 08/17/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##